Wrinkle Prediction
The World's First Prediction Model for Visualizing Future Wrinkles
KOSÉ laboratories have developed a model that accurately predicts future wrinkles based on
one's current skin condition.
This model can derive what one's skin wrinkle grade will be in five years and provide suggestions for wrinkle
care methods.
A test subject with a skin wrinkle grade of 5.0 at age 49 showed a wrinkle grade of 5.5 at age 55. Applying our prediction model to the subject's data at age 49, the predicted wrinkle value at age 55 was 5.6.
Accurate prediction of future wrinkles based on your current skin condition
Background to the Development
KOSÉ laboratories have collected skin data from 48 test subjects annually since 2009 and use that data in our skin research.
We worked in collaboration with Dr. Hisashi Noma, a medical statistics specialist, to develop a method based
on this long-term dermatological data that numerically visualizes and evaluates the risk for future wrinkle
progression.
The result is our formula for predicting future wrinkles.
An incredible 8,192 combination of factors were explored to predict future wrinkles.
Of these, our formula derives the most accurate prediction based on the individual's skin condition.
A Treasure Trove of Long-term Dermatological Data
KOSÉ laboratories have measured the wrinkles and skin condition of the same group of women since 2009.
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A Treasure Trove of Long-term Dermatological Data
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Applying the Medical Statistics Concept of Disease Prediction
Dr. Hisashi Noma
The Institute of Statistical MathematicsJoint research with
Japan's leading medical statisticianHisashi Noma, M.P.H., Ph.D.
Professor, Department of Data Science, The Institute of Statistical
Mathematics (as of October 2021)
Research Organization of Information and Systems (ROIS), Inter-University Research Institute Corporation
Building a prediction model that considers the influence of individual differences
Developing a method to numerically visualize and
evaluate the risk for future wrinkle
progression based on
an individual's current skin condition
The Formula for Predicting Future Wrinkles
Applying the Medical Statistics Concept of Disease Prediction
From a vast amount of skin condition data, we searched for factors that affect an individual's wrinkle grade.
8,192 pattern combinations
were explored to identify the most accurate predictors for wrinkle development.
Our formula for predicting future wrinkles was born when we discovered that wrinkle grades can be described by the factors of age, skin brightness, skin redness and sebum levels.